Our analysis differs in two ways from the existing trade / growth literature.
First, we testify the validity of the four thinkable relevant hypotheses for the
same dataset simultaneously: export-led growth, import-led growth, growth-led
imports and growth-led exports. Second, we check for the different effects that
might result from trading within a regional trade agreement regime. We see that
trading partners do matter: EU-15 growth seems to be favored by intra‑EU exports
and imports from the rest of the world, with the exception of China. Yet, the
reversed hypotheses are not confirmable. Therefore, even if trading with specific
countries creates positive growth effects, they are not likely to be long-lasting.
