Credit, house prices and the macroeconomy in Cyprus
Authors
Lena T. Cleanthous
Elena C. Eracleous
Nektarios A. Michail
Keywords:
Credit, house prices, VECM, Cyprus, E44, E50, R20
Abstract
This paper examines whether there is a link between house prices, credit and macroeconomic conditions in Cyprus, using a vector error correction model (VECM) and quarterly data from 2005Q4 to 2016Q4. Overall, the results suggest that a link does exist and that house prices have a bi-directional relationship with loans and unemployment rates. Macroeconomic conditions matter for Cyprus economy as an unexpected shock in unemployment has been found to have a persistent impact on all model variables. Interest rates have also been found to have an effect on wages and house prices.