Analyzing the economic output and human loss patterns across the EU and neighboring states during the pandemic

Abstract

The article looks into Eurostat’s economic output and mortality statistics covering the EU 27 member states and six neighboring countries during 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. The study identifies, across a policy mosaic, the dominant reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic along with occasional deviations from it. Nearly all deviations occurred within a long geographic zone, while the four most populous EU member states, along with six other EU member-states, did not (or were not able to) shift from the low output-high mortality situation for nearly a year. The econometric analysis reveals country-specific effects. In most counties these effects varied from one quarter to the next. However, in some countries these were consistently associated with higher output and lower mortality. Thus, there may be health and economic policy lessons to be learned from the approaches employed in such cases.